2010 Bowl Predictions part 2

Wow.  With all the success I’ve had picking games all year (admittedly more so in pro than college), the bowl season has not been kind to me.  Call it my love for the Pac 10 betraying me, or just that I may have smoked too much crack that day.  Actually, a lot of the underdogs won outright, and when you pick favorites to cover a small spread, which is the smart play, well…I ended up looking not too smart. Here’s my selections for the bowls that matter.

OUTBACK BOWL Friday, January 1

Northwestern +8 vs. Auburn

This may be the first time in my life I have ever picked a Big 10 school to beat an SEC school.  The way the season has gone, I’ve learned to go with the underdog.  Auburn has played some pretty sorry football this year, but other than that, the statictical edge would favor Aubun slightly.  Take the Wildcats and the points though, and hope they keep it close enough.

GATOR BOWL Friday, January 1

Florida State vs. (16) West Virginia -2.5

Its Bobby Bowden’s swan song, and its almost impossble to imagine one of the 2 greatest coaches in college history coaching his final game in Florida and not coming out on top.  But then you have to look at the stats.  Florida State’s defense allows more than West Virginia puts up in total yards, passing yards and rushing yards.  This means that West Virginia should be able to execute to its fullest on offense, where they managed a 9-3 record. My heart is telling me to go with Bowden, but considering the spread is 2.5, that should be more than enough for West Virginia.

CAPITAL ONE BOWL Friday, January 1

(12) LSU vs. (13) Penn State -1

Again this situation rears its head, and my respect for the SEC and disrespect for the Big 10 face off.  But Penn State has been good to be all year.  I was 7-1 ATS this year with them.  Yes, the SEC faces tougher competition, but look at the other stats: Penn State is 6-2 ATS in their last 8 overall.  LSU, however, is 8-20 in thier last 28 games on grass ATS, and 6-13 ATS in their last 19 games overall. Put it all together, and you can lay the 1 point with Paterno’s squad.

ROSE BOWL Friday, January 1

(8) Ohio State vs. (7) Oregon-4

A tough one here, but I have to go with the Pac 10 again.  Tressel has been awful in BCS games, and the PAC 10′s best has beaten the Big 10′s best quite a bit lately here.  Oregon stomped USC, who beat Ohio State in Columbus.  What’s more, is that Oregon is 7-3 ATS in their last 10 bowl games. Take the Ducks, and enjoy what should be one of the most exciting Rose Bowls in years.

SUGAR BOWL Friday, January 1

(3) Cincinnati vs. (5) Florida -12.5

For the record, I’m pulling for Cinci here. Any time we can get more undefeated teams to destroy the BCS cartel, I’m all for it. But with Brian Kelly pulling a Bobby Petrino, Cinci may be in a state of disarray.  They surely have never faced a defense this tough and this fast.  And with Urban Meyer not returning next year, you can bet Tebow and the boys will have a “Win it for Coach Meyer” attitude.   What’s glaring is that Florida is 20-6 ATS vs. a team with a winning record. Pull for Cinci, but if you’re putting money down, a 30-17 victory sound about right for the Gators, and would cover the spread.

INTERNATIONAL BOWL Saturday, January 2nd

Northern Illinois vs. South Florida -7

If indeed the name of this Bowl is to attract international viewers, they could have picked 2 more attractive teams.  Then again, I said the same thing about the Humanitarian Bowl, and it has been the most exciting Bowl game of the season thus far.  Its pretty even statistically, but South Florida has played and beaten tougher competition this year.  Lay the points and ride the Bulls.

PAPA JOHN’S PIZZA BOWL Saturday, January 2nd

Connecticut +4 vs. South Carolina

Another bowl named after very sub-par pizza.  Hopefully the quality of the game is better than that of the sponsor.  The old Ball Coach and the Cocks play in a tougher conference, but UCONN iss 10-2 ATS this year.  In addition,  they are 7-2 ATS in their last 9 games vs. a team with a winning record.  Take UCONN and the points.

LIBERTY BOWL Saturday, January 2nd

Arkansas vs. East Carolina +7.5

Give me Liberty, or give me two teams that when playing each other, make me want death”-Patrick Henry.  At least I think he said something like that.  When you look at these two teams, the most glaring statistic is that Arkansas gives up over 400 yards a game.  That should allow East Carolina to fully execute on offense, at least in theory. It should be enough to keep the Pirates within a touchdown and cover.

COTTON BOWL Saturday, January 2nd

Mississippi + 3 vs. (19) Oklahoma State

Once one of the 4 major Bowls, the Cotton Bowl has slipped in prominence the last 15 years.  Still, it usually pitts some good 2nd tier teams against each other.  I love Randy Gundy, because he’s a man because he’s 40.  But Mississippi’s offense puts up over 400 yards per game and almost 5 yards per rush, and they play in a tougher coference.  Underdogs have been playing well, so take the Rebels and the 3 points.

ALAMO BOWL Saturday, January 2nd

Michigan State vs. Texas Tech -7.5

Texas Tech lost their greatest coach ever 2 days ago, after he was fired for abusing a player.  Still, without Mike Leach, Tech has said they had even better practices and were more focused because the pressure was off.  Combine that with the fact that Michigan State is 1-7 ATS in their last 8 games vs. a team with a winning record, and you can feel good about taking the Red Raiders and laying the 7.5.

FIESTA BOWL Monday, January 4th

(6) Boise State + 7.5 vs. (4) TCU

Both of these teams have been underdogs all year.  The BCS waited for them to fall, and they never did.  So what did the BCS selction committee do?  Instead of allowing these two great programs to wipe the deck with one of the national prima donnas, they forced them to play one another, in a weak attempt to try to minimize the discussion for a playoff system (see our article Bowl Chicken Sh!t on the home page).  I love both of these programs, and as great as Boise State has proven they can be, they’ve never faced a defense like TCU’s.  Then again, Gary Patterson and the Horned Frogs haven’t faced an offense with this much big play and trick play ability this year.  This is my favorite Bowl game this year, and no matter who wins, the fact that the winner will not get a chance to play for the  national championship is a crime.   Boise State is 6-2 ATS in their last 8 bowl games.  Boise State should be able to keep it within a touchdown, so take the Mustangs and the points, and if you happen to see a guy with a BCS tattoo, tell him his mother is a whore and spit beer on him.

ORANGE  BOWL Tuesday, January 5th

(10) Iowa vs. (9) Georgia Tech -4

Iowa somehow managed a 10 win season, and a lot of those were come from behind victories against weaker school.   So good for them.  They had a nice season.  Aside from that, there’s no reason to think Georgia Tech won’t treat them like a slave in a German Scheisse video.   Georgia Tech averages 142 yards per gamne on offense more than Iowa, and a 4 point spread seems as sure a lock as any game we’ve seen.  Both of these schools are just happy they don’t play TCU or Boise State.  F’ing BCS cowards.

GMAC BOWL Wednesday, January 6th

Troy vs. Central Michigan -3.5

I thought as the Bowl season goes on, the teams were supposed to be better?  Well, just because these are smaller schools, don’t underestimate the shootout possibility in this one.  Troy gives up over 420 yards per game, and that is the biggest difference here.  Take Central Michigan and lay the 3.5 points.  And if you’re really into over/unders take the over on 63.

BCS CHAMPIONSHIP GAME

(2) Texas vs. (1) Alabama -4 Thursday, Janaury 7th

The national champion comes out of this game, and Texas is good.  But Alabama seems so much more superior.  They took one of the nation’s top 5 defenses (Florida) and pounded them like hooker.  They have the Hesiman trophy winner, although Mark Ingram should have finished 2nd to Stanford’s Toby Gerhart.  Their conference strength is better, and then you have these stats: Texas is 5-7- ATS this year and 3-7 ATS in their last 10 bowl games.  I like Alabama, and I like them in a route.  I and the rest of America would love and deserve to see them play the winner of the Fiesta Bowl.  Okay,okay…I’ll get off my soap box.