Wow.  With all the success I’ve had picking games all year (admittedly more so in pro than college), the bowl season has not been kind to me.  Call it my love for the Pac 10 betraying me, or just that I may have smoked too much crack that day.  Actually, a lot of the underdogs won outright, and when you pick favorites to cover a small spread, which is the smart play, well…I ended up looking not too smart. Here’s my selections for the bowls that matter.

OUTBACK BOWL Friday, January 1

Northwestern +8 vs. Auburn

This may be the first time in my life I have ever picked a Big 10 school to beat an SEC school.  The way the season has gone, I’ve learned to go with the underdog.  Auburn has played some pretty sorry football this year, but other than that, the statictical edge would favor Aubun slightly.  Take the Wildcats and the points though, and hope they keep it close enough.

GATOR BOWL Friday, January 1

Florida State vs. (16) West Virginia -2.5

Its Bobby Bowden’s swan song, and its almost impossble to imagine one of the 2 greatest coaches in college history coaching his final game in Florida and not coming out on top.  But then you have to look at the stats.  Florida State’s defense allows more than West Virginia puts up in total yards, passing yards and rushing yards.  This means that West Virginia should be able to execute to its fullest on offense, where they managed a 9-3 record. My heart is telling me to go with Bowden, but considering the spread is 2.5, that should be more than enough for West Virginia.

CAPITAL ONE BOWL Friday, January 1

(12) LSU vs. (13) Penn State -1

Again this situation rears its head, and my respect for the SEC and disrespect for the Big 10 face off.  But Penn State has been good to be all year.  I was 7-1 ATS this year with them.  Yes, the SEC faces tougher competition, but look at the other stats: Penn State is 6-2 ATS in their last 8 overall.  LSU, however, is 8-20 in thier last 28 games on grass ATS, and 6-13 ATS in their last 19 games overall. Put it all together, and you can lay the 1 point with Paterno’s squad.

ROSE BOWL Friday, January 1

(8) Ohio State vs. (7) Oregon-4

A tough one here, but I have to go with the Pac 10 again.  Tressel has been awful in BCS games, and the PAC 10′s best has beaten the Big 10′s best quite a bit lately here.  Oregon stomped USC, who beat Ohio State in Columbus.  What’s more, is that Oregon is 7-3 ATS in their last 10 bowl games. Take the Ducks, and enjoy what should be one of the most exciting Rose Bowls in years.

SUGAR BOWL Friday, January 1

(3) Cincinnati vs. (5) Florida -12.5

For the record, I’m pulling for Cinci here. Any time we can get more undefeated teams to destroy the BCS cartel, I’m all for it. But with Brian Kelly pulling a Bobby Petrino, Cinci may be in a state of disarray.  They surely have never faced a defense this tough and this fast.  And with Urban Meyer not returning next year, you can bet Tebow and the boys will have a “Win it for Coach Meyer” attitude.   What’s glaring is that Florida is 20-6 ATS vs. a team with a winning record. Pull for Cinci, but if you’re putting money down, a 30-17 victory sound about right for the Gators, and would cover the spread.

INTERNATIONAL BOWL Saturday, January 2nd

Northern Illinois vs. South Florida -7

If indeed the name of this Bowl is to attract international viewers, they could have picked 2 more attractive teams.  Then again, I said the same thing about the Humanitarian Bowl, and it has been the most exciting Bowl game of the season thus far.  Its pretty even statistically, but South Florida has played and beaten tougher competition this year.  Lay the points and ride the Bulls.

PAPA JOHN’S PIZZA BOWL Saturday, January 2nd

Connecticut +4 vs. South Carolina

Another bowl named after very sub-par pizza.  Hopefully the quality of the game is better than that of the sponsor.  The old Ball Coach and the Cocks play in a tougher conference, but UCONN iss 10-2 ATS this year.  In addition,  they are 7-2 ATS in their last 9 games vs. a team with a winning record.  Take UCONN and the points.

LIBERTY BOWL Saturday, January 2nd

Arkansas vs. East Carolina +7.5

Give me Liberty, or give me two teams that when playing each other, make me want death”-Patrick Henry.  At least I think he said something like that.  When you look at these two teams, the most glaring statistic is that Arkansas gives up over 400 yards a game.  That should allow East Carolina to fully execute on offense, at least in theory. It should be enough to keep the Pirates within a touchdown and cover.

COTTON BOWL Saturday, January 2nd

Mississippi + 3 vs. (19) Oklahoma State

Once one of the 4 major Bowls, the Cotton Bowl has slipped in prominence the last 15 years.  Still, it usually pitts some good 2nd tier teams against each other.  I love Randy Gundy, because he’s a man because he’s 40.  But Mississippi’s offense puts up over 400 yards per game and almost 5 yards per rush, and they play in a tougher coference.  Underdogs have been playing well, so take the Rebels and the 3 points.

ALAMO BOWL Saturday, January 2nd

Michigan State vs. Texas Tech -7.5

Texas Tech lost their greatest coach ever 2 days ago, after he was fired for abusing a player.  Still, without Mike Leach, Tech has said they had even better practices and were more focused because the pressure was off.  Combine that with the fact that Michigan State is 1-7 ATS in their last 8 games vs. a team with a winning record, and you can feel good about taking the Red Raiders and laying the 7.5.

FIESTA BOWL Monday, January 4th

(6) Boise State + 7.5 vs. (4) TCU

Both of these teams have been underdogs all year.  The BCS waited for them to fall, and they never did.  So what did the BCS selction committee do?  Instead of allowing these two great programs to wipe the deck with one of the national prima donnas, they forced them to play one another, in a weak attempt to try to minimize the discussion for a playoff system (see our article Bowl Chicken Sh!t on the home page).  I love both of these programs, and as great as Boise State has proven they can be, they’ve never faced a defense like TCU’s.  Then again, Gary Patterson and the Horned Frogs haven’t faced an offense with this much big play and trick play ability this year.  This is my favorite Bowl game this year, and no matter who wins, the fact that the winner will not get a chance to play for the  national championship is a crime.   Boise State is 6-2 ATS in their last 8 bowl games.  Boise State should be able to keep it within a touchdown, so take the Mustangs and the points, and if you happen to see a guy with a BCS tattoo, tell him his mother is a whore and spit beer on him.

ORANGE  BOWL Tuesday, January 5th

(10) Iowa vs. (9) Georgia Tech -4

Iowa somehow managed a 10 win season, and a lot of those were come from behind victories against weaker school.   So good for them.  They had a nice season.  Aside from that, there’s no reason to think Georgia Tech won’t treat them like a slave in a German Scheisse video.   Georgia Tech averages 142 yards per gamne on offense more than Iowa, and a 4 point spread seems as sure a lock as any game we’ve seen.  Both of these schools are just happy they don’t play TCU or Boise State.  F’ing BCS cowards.

GMAC BOWL Wednesday, January 6th

Troy vs. Central Michigan -3.5

I thought as the Bowl season goes on, the teams were supposed to be better?  Well, just because these are smaller schools, don’t underestimate the shootout possibility in this one.  Troy gives up over 420 yards per game, and that is the biggest difference here.  Take Central Michigan and lay the 3.5 points.  And if you’re really into over/unders take the over on 63.

BCS CHAMPIONSHIP GAME

(2) Texas vs. (1) Alabama -4 Thursday, Janaury 7th

The national champion comes out of this game, and Texas is good.  But Alabama seems so much more superior.  They took one of the nation’s top 5 defenses (Florida) and pounded them like hooker.  They have the Hesiman trophy winner, although Mark Ingram should have finished 2nd to Stanford’s Toby Gerhart.  Their conference strength is better, and then you have these stats: Texas is 5-7- ATS this year and 3-7 ATS in their last 10 bowl games.  I like Alabama, and I like them in a route.  I and the rest of America would love and deserve to see them play the winner of the Fiesta Bowl.  Okay,okay…I’ll get off my soap box.

Every year it seems, the BCS is on the verge of a major controversy that would push for a playoff.  And every year, somehow, the questions that develop after the season ends somehow fall on deaf ears.  But this year, a scenario developed that couldn’t be ignored, or so we thought.  This year, a “BCS BUST” scenario has never been more prevalent, but the BCS selection committee chose the chicken sh!t way out.

Case in point: pairing Boise State and TCU in the Fiesta Bowl.

Going into the 2009-2010 Bowl season we had 4 undefeated teams, something the system has never had.  The argument has always been that schools from historically “weaker” conferences couldn’t play with the big boys in the power conferences.  But that argument has been drilled like a Paris Hilton on a night out in recent years.

Just three years ago, Boise State put all the critics complaints to rest, taking out Oklahoma in-maybe not so arguably-the most exciting college football game in history. The dramatic 43-42 overtime victory culminated with Boise State’s Statue of Liberty 2- point conversion was seen on prime time national television.  And let’s not forget, Oklahoma was a 2 loss team that year, with one of them being to Oregon on a call that was pure robbery.  The game was stolen from Oklahoma like the innocence of a child by Gary Glitter. If not for that horrible call, Oklahoma would have been playing for the national title, and Boise State beat them.

And last year, undefeated Utah squared off against #3 Alabama in the Sugar Bowl.  The SEC is perennially thought to be the toughest conference in the country year after year, and the Mountain West shouldn’t have been able to compete.  Utah not only competed, but dominated from the outset and finished the year undefeated and with a #2 ranking.  After working over the SEC #2, we all wanted to see them square off against the BCS champion and SEC #1 Florida.  What we were left with was the only undefeated team finishing the season ranked second, and an ass load of questions.

So now here we are, with 2 undefeated schools ready to play the big boys, and prove once and for all that a playoff system is necessary.  The problem is, the big boys don’t want to play them, and the BCS selection committee didn’t want to put their power conferences in a position to be beaten.  The BCS had a chance to redeem themselves, or at least practice what they preach, and instead went and hid like cowards.

We can sit here and speculate that, although Georgia Tech had a very nice year, but TCU would very likely beat them, but now we’ll never know.  And what would happen if Boise State were to face Iowa?  If you are going to put the Big Ten #2 in a BCS game, that’s  nothing.  Boise State already proved they could beat the Big 12 #1 two years ago. Given these scenarios, there would be 3 undefeated teams including the BCS title game winner.  If Cincinnati were to upset Florida, that would have given us 4 unbeaten teams at year’s end, all but demanding a new system be implemented.

At the very least, a “Plus 1” scenario would be some sort of improvement, but don’t count on the BCS to revamp any time soon.  BCS conferences have perennial toilet teams like Duke, Syracuse, Indiana, and Vanderbilt raking in 3 times as much money as TCU and Boise State. The WAC and Mountain West Champions put it all on the line and succeed every year, including beating the best conference and teams in bowls, but can’t get paid because the conference is apparently not good enough.  So don’t expect the BCS conferences to all of a sudden go for a playoff, even though it’s clear that it would be fairer.

Just like organized crime (and the case can be made that’s exactly what the BCS is) its all about money.

College Football’s bowl season kicks off tomorrow.  I’ve supplied my prediction and witty commentary about who will win and why for all the bowls through the end of the year.  This is my first installment, covering the bowls from December 19th through December 31.  Then I’ll get into the ones that matter in my second installment.    For now, take these bets to the bank, and enjoy your egg nog, though it may come back up after looking at some of these match ups.

NEW MEXICO BOWL Saturday, December 19th

Wyoming vs. Fresno State -10.5

Most of the data suggests Wyoming will cover.  Still, a 35-24 game doesn’t sound like too much of a chore for Pat Hill to get done, especially with Wyoming allowing about 100 yards more on defense than they muster up on offense.

ST. PETERSBURG BOWL Saturday December 19th

Central Florida -3 vs. Rutgers

What?  The St. Petersburg Bowl?  What the Hell is this?  And will anyone watch?  The only glaring difference is Central Florida is 3 games better vs. the spread this year.  Lay the 3 points, and go punch yourself in the face for a better time.

NEW ORLEANS BOWL Sunday, December 20th

Middle Tennessee State vs. Southern Mississippi + 3.5

This isn’t the bowl the people of N’awlins are hoping for.  And take these records and throw them out the window.  I used my magic 8 ball (not the cocaine one), and all signs point to Southern Miss upsetting MT State.  Take the points and pray Favre’s alma matter comes through like he has this year.  Old ass.

MAACO LAS VEGAS BOWL Tuesday, December 22^nd

(14) BYU vs. (18) Oregon State -2.5

Now we’re getting somewhere.  Some decent teams with good records and tougher conferences.  The Rogers brothers play in the tougher conference, and that should be all they need to beat Max Hall and the Cougars by a field goal.  That, and the fact that Oregon State is 23-8 in their last 31 games against the spread.

POINSETTIA BOWL Wednesday, December 23^rd

(23) Utah vs. Cal -3.5

Another PAC 10 vs. Mountain West clash.  Last year, the Mountain West owned the Pac 10 like a Pirate owns his wench:  Dirty and unforgiving.  But the PAC 10 is far better this year, and the Mountain West is down.  The question is which team will show up for Cal, as they have been Jekyll and Hyde all year. Jahvid Best, is one of the top 5 backs in the country, but is still questionable for the game .  Strength of conference is the decider here again, so roll with the PAC 10 and lay the 3.5.

HAWAII BOWL Thursday, December 24^th

Southern Methodist vs. Nevada -15

It seems as if a more watchable bowl game could have been put on Christmas Eve.  Then again, I’ll be so wasted on egg nog and single-barrel Jack Daniels and cursing at the Christmas carolers, I won’t watch anyway.  What I do like is Nevada putting up 522 yards of offense per game, and that seems sufficient to lay the 15 against Eric Dickerson’s alma matter.

LITTLE CAESAR’S PIZZA BOWL Saturday, December 26^th

Ohio vs. Marshall -2.5

Sadly, more people may find the sponsor’s pizza more appetizing than this game.  Instead of the “We are (clap-clap) Mar-shall!” cheer, television ratings may pick up a “No One (clap-clap) Will Watch!!! ” reaction.  So what do we do?  Go with the home team being 7-1 in their last 8 meetings against the spread…wait a minute, it’s a bowl game, so there’s no real home team…f’it.  Flip a coin.

MEINEKE CAR CARE BOWL Saturday, December 26th

North Carolina vs. (17) Pittsburgh -3

After a heartbreaking loss to Cincinnati to cost them a BCS birth, Pittsburgh should rebound against North Carolina.  You never know which UNC team will show, and we like that Pitt gets almost twice as many yards per carry on the ground.  That’s enough to lay 3 points.  I still think Dave Wannstedt looks like a porn star, without the intelligence.

EMERALD BOWL Saturday, December 26^th

Boston College +9 vs. (24) USC

It’s no secret who UCLA will be cheering for.  And its no secret that USC will be looking to make an example out of Boston College after a huge bowl demotion.  Emerald Nuts has a bowl, and USC will try to make Boston College taste theirs.  But USC’s arrogance may have finally caught up with them, as their talent, once able to back up their hubris, can no longer. SC no longer possesses a deep threat or quick strike offense, nor do they put up a great amount of points.  Combine that with Boston College being 7-3 against the spread in their last 10 games versus a team with a winning record, and I’ll take the Eagles +9 all day.

MUSIC CITY BOWL Sunday, December 27^th

Kentucky vs. Clemson -7.5

When you have a match up like this, a lot of the time it comes down to conference strength.  But throw in a potential top 5 NFL pick in Clemson’s C.J. Spiller, and a 28-20 score is definitely foreseeable.  Roll with the Tigers.

INDEPENDENCE BOWL Monday, December 28^th

Texas A & M vs. Georgia -7

I can’t believe A & M even made a bowl.  However, in all the major statistical categories, its pretty evenly matched.  But when you factor in the even statistics with Georgia playing in a much tougher conference, plus Georgia is 8-3 against the spread in their last 11 bowl games, Georgia should win by at least a touchdown.

EAGLE BANK BOWL Tuesday, December 29^th

Temple + 4 vs. UCLA

UCLA had to wait until the very last game of the college football season to see if they could get to a bowl.  That game was the Army/Navy game.  I never thought UCLA’s bowl eligibility would ride on this contest.  With Navy’s victory, UCLA gets the privilege of facing Temple in the Eagle Bank (Bailout) Bowl.  Playing in a weaker conference, Temple is the underdog here.  But they are 9-3 in their last 12 games against the spread, and UCLA’s victories have all come against really bad teams.  I like the Owls all day.

CHAMPS SPORTS BOWL Tuesday, December 29^th

(25) Wisconsin vs. (15) Miami -3.5

Finally, a more scintillating match-up with two ranked teams.  Wisconsin’s rank is suspect, because of the Big Ten’s perennial over rating.  Although the statistical differences are negligible, I think Jacory Harris could be a Heisman candidate in 2 more years.  The Canes are 7-3 against the spread in their last 10 bowl games, and Miami’s high powered offense should have no problem covering 3.5.  Lay the points, and watch for any drugs or weapons on the Miami sideline (You can also do the same in the Emerald Bowl with USC’s sideline).

HUMANITARIAN BOWL Wednesday, December 30^th

Bowling Green -2 vs. Idaho

The Humanitarian Bowl in the past has featured some more intriguing match ups.  But this year, if the board of directors for this bowl selection committee had any sense of what the word “humanitarian” means, then they wouldn’t subject us to watch these 2 teams.  Bowling Green is 6-2 in their last 8 games on turf against the spread, and that’s enough for us to lay the 2 and go buy the liquor for the New Years party.

HOLIDAY BOWL Wednesday, December 30^th

(22) Nebraska vs. (20) Arizona -1.5

Arizona averages 2 yards per carry more than Nebraska, but they have never seen an interior lineman like Ndamukong Suh.  That said, you have to figure with Arizona playing in the second best conference in the country, Suh is the sole reason the spread is only 1.5.  The over/under is 40, and should be a lot lower than that.  Figure 13-10 Arizona, and lay the 1.5.

ARMED FORCES BOWL Thursday, December 31^st

Air Force vs. Houston -4

Obviously, the sentimental favorite is Air Force in the Armed Forces Bowl.  But Houston averages 230 yards of total offense more per game.  The conference strength between these two teams is negligible here…so that’s a lot.  Throw in the fact that Houston is 8-4 against the spread this year and 9-4 in their last 13 games, and I like the Cougars to cover the 4 points here.

SUN BOWL Thursday, December 31^st

(21) Stanford +8 vs. Oklahoma

My favorite new team of the year, Jim Harbaugh has taken Stanford to a more than respectable program.  Their Heisman candidate Toby Gerhart was robbed of the trophy, due again to East Coast bias.  The odds makers must no a whole lot that I don’t, and I guess that’s why they are the odds makers and I am a self proclaimed expert.  I love Stanford’s offensive line, Toby Gerhart and Andrew Luck.  They average almost 3 yards per rush more than Oklahoma, and play in a tougher conference.  They should win outright, and easily stay within 8 points.

TEXAS BOWL Thursday, December 31^st

Navy + 6.5 vs. Missouri

Navy’s biggest claim to fame this year was their victory over Notre Dame, sealing the fate of the fatty tuna, Charlie Weis.  They still love to run the ball, using option and wishbone and other 3 back sets constantly.  Averaging almost 2 yards more per rush could help them stay close, and when you consider Missouri is 1-8 against the spread versus a team with a winning record, I like Navy and the points.

INSIGHT BOWL Thursday, December 31

Iowa State + 2.5 vs. Minnesota

Here’s some insight:  Don’t put two .500 teams from the same conference, and the most overrated conference at that, in the same game and make us watch, then have the nerve to call it the “Insight Bowl”.  Why not call it, “The Battle For Mediocrity”?  Iowa State is the underdog, and when you consider they are 10-2 against the spread in their last 12 vs. their own conference, take the Cyclones and 2.5, and a box of valium to make the game more interesting.

CHICK FIL-A BOWL Thursday, December 31

Tennessee vs. (11) Virginia Tech -4.5

How Tennessee finished 7-5 and made a bowl is perplexing.  Crybaby Lane Kiffin got his team in to a bowl, despite episodes of atrocious playing, including a home loss to UCLA.  But the bigger mystery is how is VA Tech only a 4.5 point favorite.  Frank Beamer is an experienced coach and has VA Tech as a perennial bowl team, and he’ll have his team ready to work over little Laney.  Lay the 4.5 with arrogance.  If there is a lock in a bowl game, this is it