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		<title>College Bowl Predictions Part 1</title>
		<link>http://www.notespn.com/college-bowl-predictions-part-1/</link>
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		<pubDate>Sat, 19 Dec 2009 07:17:07 +0000</pubDate>
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		<description><![CDATA[College Football&#8217;s bowl season kicks off tomorrow.  I&#8217;ve supplied my prediction and witty commentary about who will win and why for all the bowls through the end of the year.  This is my first installment, covering the bowls from December 19th through December 31.  Then I&#8217;ll get into the ones that matter in my second [...]]]></description>
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<p>College Football&#8217;s bowl season kicks off tomorrow.  I&#8217;ve supplied my prediction and witty commentary about who will win and why for all the bowls through the end of the year.  This is my first installment, covering the bowls from December 19th through December 31.  Then I&#8217;ll get into the ones that matter in my second installment.    For now, take these bets to the bank, and enjoy your egg nog, though it may come back up after looking at some of these match ups.</p>
<p><strong>NEW MEXICO BOWL </strong><em>Saturday, December 19th</em></p>
<p><em><strong>Wyoming vs. Fresno  State -10.5</strong></em></p>
<p>Most of the data suggests Wyoming will cover.  Still, a 35-24 game doesn’t sound like too much of a chore for Pat Hill to get done, especially with Wyoming allowing about 100 yards more on defense than they muster up on offense.</p>
<p><strong>ST. PETERSBURG BOWL </strong> <em>Saturday December 19th</em></p>
<p><em><strong>Central Florida -3 vs. Rutgers</strong></em></p>
<p>What?  The St.   Petersburg Bowl?  What the Hell is this?  And will anyone watch?  The only glaring difference is Central Florida is 3 games better vs. the spread this year.  Lay the 3 points, and go punch yourself in the face for a better time.</p>
<p><strong>NEW ORLEANS BOWL</strong> <em>Sunday, December 20th</em></p>
<p><em><strong>Middle Tennessee  State vs. Southern  Mississippi + 3.5</strong></em></p>
<p>This isn’t the bowl the people of N’awlins are hoping for.  And take these records and throw them out the window.  I used my magic 8 ball (not the cocaine one), and all signs point to Southern Miss upsetting MT State.  Take the points and pray Favre’s alma matter comes through like he has this year.  Old ass.</p>
<p><strong>MAACO LAS VEGAS BOWL </strong> <em>Tuesday, December 22<sup>nd</sup></em></p>
<p><strong><em>(14) BYU vs. (18) Oregon  State -2.5</em></strong></p>
<p>Now we’re getting somewhere.  Some decent teams with good records and tougher conferences.  The Rogers brothers play in the tougher conference, and that should be all they need to beat Max Hall and the Cougars by a field goal.  That, and the fact that Oregon State is 23-8 in their last 31 games against the spread.</p>
<p><strong>POINSETTIA BOWL</strong> <em>Wednesday, December 23<sup>rd</sup></em></p>
<p><sup> </sup></p>
<p><strong><em>(23) Utah vs. Cal -3.5</em></strong></p>
<p>Another PAC 10 vs. Mountain West clash.  Last year, the Mountain West owned the Pac 10 like a Pirate owns his wench:  Dirty and unforgiving.  But the PAC 10 is far better this year, and the Mountain West is down.  The question is which team will show up for Cal, as they have been Jekyll and Hyde all year. Jahvid Best, is one of the top 5 backs in the country, but is still questionable for the game .  Strength of conference is the decider here again, so roll with the PAC 10 and lay the 3.5.</p>
<p><strong>HAWAII BOWL</strong> <em>Thursday, December 24<sup>th</sup></em></p>
<p><strong><em>Southern Methodist vs. Nevada -15</em></strong></p>
<p>It seems as if a more watchable bowl game could have been put on Christmas Eve.  Then again, I’ll be so wasted on egg nog and single-barrel Jack Daniels and cursing at the Christmas carolers, I won’t watch anyway.  What I do like is Nevada putting up 522 yards of offense per game, and that seems sufficient to lay the 15 against Eric Dickerson’s alma matter.</p>
<p><strong>LITTLE CAESAR’S PIZZA BOWL </strong> <em>Saturday, December 26<sup>th</sup></em></p>
<p><strong><em>Ohio vs. Marshall -2.5</em></strong></p>
<p>Sadly, more people may find the sponsor’s pizza more appetizing than this game.  Instead of the “We are (clap-clap) Mar-shall!” cheer, television ratings may pick up a “No One (clap-clap) Will Watch!!! &#8221; reaction.  So what do we do?  Go with the home team being 7-1 in their last 8 meetings against the spread…wait a minute, it’s a bowl game, so there’s no real home team…f’it.  Flip a coin.</p>
<p><strong>MEINEKE CAR CARE BOWL</strong> <em> Saturday, December 26th</em></p>
<p><em><strong> North Carolina vs. (17) Pittsburgh -3</strong></em></p>
<p>After a heartbreaking loss to Cincinnati to cost them a BCS birth, Pittsburgh should rebound against North Carolina.  You never know which UNC team will show, and we like that Pitt gets almost twice as many yards per carry on the ground.  That’s enough to lay 3 points.  I still think Dave Wannstedt looks like a porn star, without the intelligence.</p>
<p><strong>EMERALD BOWL</strong> <em> Saturday, December 26<sup>th</sup></em></p>
<p><strong><em>Boston College +9 vs. (24) USC</em></strong></p>
<p>It’s no secret who UCLA will be cheering for.  And its no secret that USC will be looking to make an example out of Boston College after a huge bowl demotion.  Emerald Nuts has a bowl, and USC will try to make Boston  College taste theirs.  But USC’s arrogance may have finally caught up with them, as their talent, once able to back up their hubris, can no longer. SC no longer possesses a deep threat or quick strike offense, nor do they put up a great amount of points.  Combine that with Boston College being 7-3 against the spread in their last 10 games versus a team with a winning record, and I’ll take the Eagles +9 all day.</p>
<p><strong>MUSIC CITY BOWL </strong> <em> Sunday, December 27<sup>th</sup></em></p>
<p><em><strong>Kentucky vs. Clemson -7.5</strong></em></p>
<p>When you have a match up like this, a lot of the time it comes down to conference strength.  But throw in a potential top 5 NFL pick in Clemson’s C.J. Spiller, and a 28-20 score is definitely foreseeable.  Roll with the Tigers.</p>
<p><strong>INDEPENDENCE BOWL</strong> <em>Monday, December 28<sup>th</sup></em></p>
<p><em><strong>Texas A &amp; M vs. Georgia -7</strong></em></p>
<p>I can’t believe A &amp; M even made a bowl.  However, in all the major statistical categories, its pretty evenly matched.  But when you factor in the even statistics with Georgia playing in a much tougher conference, plus Georgia is 8-3 against the spread in their last 11 bowl games, Georgia should win by at least a touchdown.</p>
<p><strong>EAGLE BANK BOWL</strong> <em>Tuesday, December 29<sup>th</sup></em></p>
<p><em><strong>Temple + 4 vs. UCLA</strong></em></p>
<p>UCLA had to wait until the very last game of the college football season to see if they could get to a bowl.  That game was the Army/Navy game.  I never thought UCLA’s bowl eligibility would ride on this contest.  With Navy’s victory, UCLA gets the privilege of facing Temple in the Eagle Bank (Bailout) Bowl.  Playing in a weaker conference, Temple is the underdog here.  But they are 9-3 in their last 12 games against the spread, and UCLA’s victories have all come against really bad teams.  I like the Owls all day.</p>
<p><strong>CHAMPS SPORTS BOWL</strong> <em>Tuesday, December 29<sup>th</sup></em></p>
<p><strong><em>(25) Wisconsin vs. (15) Miami -3.5</em></strong></p>
<p>Finally, a more scintillating match-up with two ranked teams.  Wisconsin’s rank is suspect, because of the Big Ten’s perennial over rating.  Although the statistical differences are negligible, I think Jacory Harris could be a Heisman candidate in 2 more years.  The Canes are 7-3 against the spread in their last 10 bowl games, and Miami’s high powered offense should have no problem covering 3.5.  Lay the points, and watch for any drugs or weapons on the Miami sideline (You can also do the same in the Emerald Bowl with USC’s sideline).</p>
<p><strong>HUMANITARIAN BOWL </strong> <em>Wednesday, December 30<sup>th</sup></em></p>
<p><strong>Bowling Green -2 vs. Idaho</strong></p>
<p>The Humanitarian Bowl in the past has featured some more intriguing match ups.  But this year, if the board of directors for this bowl selection committee had any sense of what the word “humanitarian” means, then they wouldn’t subject us to watch these 2 teams.  Bowling Green is 6-2 in their last 8 games on turf against the spread, and that’s enough for us to lay the 2 and go buy the liquor for the New Years party.</p>
<p><strong>HOLIDAY BOWL</strong> <em>Wednesday, December 30<sup>th</sup></em></p>
<p><em><strong>(22) Nebraska vs. (20) Arizona -1.5</strong></em></p>
<p>Arizona averages 2 yards per carry more than Nebraska, but they have never seen an interior lineman like Ndamukong Suh.  That said, you have to figure with Arizona playing in the second best conference in the country, Suh is the sole reason the spread is only 1.5.  The over/under is 40, and should be a lot lower than that.  Figure 13-10 Arizona, and lay the 1.5.</p>
<p><strong>ARMED FORCES BOWL </strong> <em>Thursday, December 31<sup>st </sup></em></p>
<p><em><strong>Air Force vs. Houston -4</strong></em></p>
<p>Obviously, the sentimental favorite is Air Force in the Armed Forces Bowl.  But Houston averages 230 yards of total offense more per game.  The conference strength between these two teams is negligible here&#8230;so that’s a lot.  Throw in the fact that Houston is 8-4 against the spread this year and 9-4 in their last 13 games, and I like the Cougars to cover the 4 points here.</p>
<p><strong>SUN BOWL </strong> <em> Thursday, December 31<sup>st</sup></em></p>
<p><strong><em>(21) Stanford +8 vs. Oklahoma</em></strong></p>
<p>My favorite new team of the year, Jim Harbaugh has taken Stanford to a more than respectable program.  Their Heisman candidate Toby Gerhart was robbed of the trophy, due again to East Coast bias.  The odds makers must no a whole lot that I don’t, and I guess that’s why they are the odds makers and I am a self proclaimed expert.  I love Stanford’s offensive line, Toby Gerhart and Andrew Luck.  They average almost 3 yards per rush more than Oklahoma, and play in a tougher conference.  They should win outright, and easily stay within 8 points.</p>
<p><strong>TEXAS BOWL</strong> <em> Thursday, December 31<sup>st</sup></em></p>
<p><em><strong>Navy + 6.5 vs. Missouri</strong></em></p>
<p>Navy’s biggest claim to fame this year was their victory over Notre Dame, sealing the fate of the fatty tuna, Charlie Weis.  They still love to run the ball, using option and wishbone and other 3 back sets constantly.  Averaging almost 2 yards more per rush could help them stay close, and when you consider Missouri is 1-8 against the spread versus a team with a winning record, I like Navy and the points.</p>
<p><strong>INSIGHT BOWL</strong> <em> Thursday, December 31</em></p>
<p><strong><em>Iowa State + 2.5 vs. Minnesota</em></strong></p>
<p>Here’s some insight:  Don’t put two .500 teams from the same conference, and the most overrated conference at that, in the same game and make us watch, then have the nerve to call it the “Insight Bowl”.  Why not call it, “The Battle For Mediocrity”?  Iowa State is the underdog, and when you consider they are 10-2 against the spread in their last 12 vs. their own conference, take the Cyclones and 2.5, and a box of valium to make the game more interesting.</p>
<p><strong>CHICK FIL-A BOWL </strong> <em> Thursday, December 31</em></p>
<p><strong><em>Tennessee vs. (11) Virginia Tech -4.5</em></strong></p>
<p>How Tennessee finished 7-5 and made a bowl is perplexing.  Crybaby Lane Kiffin got his team in to a bowl, despite episodes of atrocious playing, including a home loss to UCLA.  But the bigger mystery is how is VA Tech only a 4.5 point favorite.  Frank Beamer is an experienced coach and has VA Tech as a perennial bowl team, and he’ll have his team ready to work over little Laney.  Lay the 4.5 with arrogance.  If there is a lock in a bowl game, this is it</p>
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